The Israeli attack on Iran: what do we know? And what does it mean?
Alternative Media commentators from among intelligence veterans and military veterans had their time ‘on air’ on Friday, well before the Israeli attack on Iran carried out during the night of 25 – 26 October. For that reason, their evaluations of the attack have not yet appeared on youtube.
Accordingly, what I present here is based on my own layman’s evaluation of the Israeli attacks without reference to what the Martyanovs, Larry Johnsons or Scott Ritters will say eventually. My primary raw inputs are what major media in the West, in Russia and in the Middle East itself have published about the attack. I can point in particular to the video images from Teheran during the attack posted on this morning’s BBC World News.
The text message from all sides repeats the Israeli claims to have struck 20 military targets in Iran comprising missile and drone manufacturing facilities, as well as radar systems of the Iranian air defense. The former targets require no explanation; the latter are targets that are usually chosen by the attacking side to prepare the way for jets that will bomb substantial infrastructure at some time in the future.
As for Iran, the text of major Western media is that Iran denies any substantial damage was done. Such denial is considered to be a face-saving measure enabling Teheran not to respond to this latest Israeli aggression without appearing to be weak even if their losses were serious.
So far so good. We are left with an impression that we are being systematically underinformed by all sides in what is called ‘the fog of war.’
However, even a modest effort shows that there is something that we can divine from these sketchy inputs plus certain diverse information that has appeared in unofficial internet sources but was not tied together to any big-picture interpretation.
First, note that the Israeli attack on targets in and near Teheran was made by air to ground missiles. This is an entirely different type of attack from what Israel has been doing in Gaza, in Lebanon, in Syria. In those fronts the Israelis are primarily using their jets to drop bombs over or from near their targets, including the multi-ton highly destructive glide bombs that the United States has shipped to Israel in lavish quantities because of their destructive power and lethality.
We do not know the nature of the Israeli attack on two provinces of Iran close to the Iraqi border. No video images from there have been published. Perhaps the Israelis crossed the border into Iran, perhaps not. But they clearly hit the Teheran area from missiles fired at a great distance and the reason should be fairly obvious: because the Iranian air defense is robust and has been further strengthened in recent months by installation of Russia’s advanced S400 ground to air missiles.
Moreover, there is likely a second reason for the Israelis not flying very far into Iran: the lack of refueling tanker jets from the USA, which surely have not been offered to them. The Pentagon wants to prevent escalation of the conflict that would draw the States into the war and potentially into a direct clash with Russia, which will likely stand by its protégé in the region. We saw that in the ‘leak’ of highly confidential intelligence papers setting out the details of a devastating attack on Iran which Netanyahu had been planning. Here, too, by denial of refueling assistance we can discern the same resistance in the high ranks of the US military to the inane policies of the civilian leadership as represented by Biden and Blinken out of considerations of realism.
What do I hear and read in ‘unofficial’ internet sources, mostly Russia-based, that bears on the question at hand? It is that Russia provided to Teheran advance warning of the impending Israeli attack coming from its own technical means of intelligence gathering, presumably meaning satellites and/or AWACS. If this is true, then it demonstrates that Russia will provide effective and highly useful assistance to Iran as the conflict with Israel evolves, even though no binding mutual defense treaty has been signed, let alone ratified. The lack of a treaty in place is simply to prevent Iran from abusing a blank check and behaving irresponsibly.
How much damage was done to Iranian military infrastructure by the Israeli attack? The BBC video images show clearly that their air defense was operating and apparently blowing up incoming missiles. Therefore, we may well believe the Iranian claims that the damage to themselves was relatively minor. We may assume that Russia will be rushing in replacement missiles for those of its S400 expended in resisting the Israeli attack, or where needed to replace damaged Iranian air defense locations. Thus, Tel Aviv will be given pause when planning any deep incursions to stage bombing raids.
To put it in simpler language: for the Israelis Iran is not the relative child’s play of Gaza or Syria just as Hezbollah is not relative sitting duck, Hamas, but is a serious peer military force.
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This morning, I had the opportunity to set out some of the above observations in my status one of two panelists on a live broadcast carried by Iran’s Press TV. My fellow panelist was an expert based in Beirut. As soon as the link is made available, I will post it here.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024